The End of History Illusion Replicates (#227)

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How to Cite this Report

APA Style

Ryan J. McCarty, Sara Lee, Lawton K. Swan. The End of History Illusion Replicates. (2015, July 19). Retrieved 06:41, March 25, 2017 from http://www.PsychFileDrawer.org/replication.php?attempt=MjI3

MLA Style

"The End of History Illusion Replicates" Ryan J. McCarty, Sara Lee, Lawton K. Swan. 19 Jul 2015 09:40 25 Mar 2017, 06:41 <http://www.PsychFileDrawer.org/replication.php?attempt=MjI3>

MHRA Style

'The End of History Illusion Replicates', Ryan J. McCarty, Sara Lee, Lawton K. Swan, , 19 July 2015 09:40 <http://www.PsychFileDrawer.org/replication.php?attempt=MjI3> [accessed 25 March 2017]

Chicago Style

"The End of History Illusion Replicates", Ryan J. McCarty, Sara Lee, Lawton K. Swan, , http://www.PsychFileDrawer.org/replication.php?attempt=MjI3 (accessed March 25, 2017)

CBE/CSE Style

The End of History Illusion Replicates [Internet]. Ryan J. McCarty, Sara Lee, Lawton K. Swan; 2015 Jul 19, 09:40 [cited 2017 Mar 25]. Available from: http://www.PsychFileDrawer.org/replication.php?attempt=MjI3

Reference to Original Report of Finding Quoidbach J., Gilbert D. T., Wilson T. D. (2013). The end of history illusion. Science, 339(6115), 96-98
Title The End of History Illusion Replicates
If the original article contained multiple experiments, which one did you attempt to replicate? e.g., you might respond 'Study 1' or 'Experiment 4'. Study 1
Link to PDF of Original ReportView Article
Brief Statement of Original Result People of all ages reported that their personalities have changed more over the last 10 years than they expect their personalities to change over the next 10 years, demonstrating the so-called “end of history illusion.”
Type of Replication Attempted Conceptual Replication
Result Type Successful Replication
Difference? Same Direction, .0001
Number of Subjects 252
Number of Subjects in Original Study 7519
Year in which Replication Attempt was Made 2015
Name of Investigators (Real Names Required) Ryan J. McCarty, Sara Lee, Lawton K. Swan
Detailed Description of Method/Results We hypothesized that, in accordance with the original study, participants in our sample (N = 252 MTurk workers) would report having changed more in the last 10 years than they believe they will change over the next 10 years.

First, all participants filled out the Ten Item Personality Inventory (TIPI) with standard instructions (Gosling, Rentfrow, & Swann, 2003). Second, we assigned participants randomly to one of two conditions: (a) the "reporter" condition, in which we asked them to fill out the TIPI as they believe they would have 10 years ago; or (b) the "predictor" condition, in which we asked them to fill out the TIPI as they believe they would 10 years from the present day.

To test our hypothesis, we began by computing absolute value discrepancy scores for each of the Big 5 personality dimensions measured by the TIPI (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Conscientiousness, Agreeableness, and Openness) by subtracting present-day personality scores from past (reporters) or future (predictors) estimates. We then summed these five absolute value discrepancy scores to create a single "overall discrepancy" variable, quantifying the magnitude of the difference between participants' present-day TIPI reports and their past (reporters) or future (predictors) estimates.

Using this overall discrepancy variable, we then compared the scores of the reporters and the predictors. Participants in the reporter condition reported more personality change (M= 14.8, SD= 5.6) than did participants in the predictor condition (M= 10.9, SD= 5.2). An independent-samples t-test revealed a significant group difference t(237)= 5.57, p= 0.00.

Finally, participants completed an attention check item (failures were removed prior to analyses), followed by general demographic questions.

***

Additionally, we asked participants from the reporter condition to answer the question “how much do you feel you have changed as a person over the last 10 years” on a 1 to 10 scale (1 = no change at all, 10 = drastic and complete change); and participants in the predictor condition to answer the question “how much do you feel you will change as a person over the next 10 years” (using the same scale).

Again, replicating the findings presented in the original report, participants in the reporter condition estimated a greater overall change in personality (M=6.5, SD= 2.1) than participants in the predictor condition (M = 5.5, SD = 2.2). An independent-samples t-test revealed a significant group difference t(246)=3.74, p < 0.001.
Any Known Methodological Differences
(between original and present study)?
In this study, we investigated how the “end of history illusion” affected people of all ages, on average. However, in the original study, the authors added a layer of complexity by comparing the predictions of predictors aged a years to reporters aged a + 10 years. Therefore, the original authors were able to investigate the effect one’s own age had on this phenomenon. Also, in the original study, the “general” change estimate question was used in a replication of their study 1, in place of the Ten Item Personality Inventory, whereas we chose to include it alongside (in addition to) the Ten Item Personality Inventory (we counterbalanced the order of presentation between these two sets of items).
Email of Investigator
Name of individuals who
actually carried out the project
The first two authors under the supervision of the third author
Location of ProjectN/A (MTurk)
Characteristics of Subjects
(subject pool, paid, etc.)
Adults tested through internet
Participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk
Where did these subjects reside?United States
Was this a Class Project?Yes
Further Details of Results as pdf
Additional Comments
Email of Original Investigator
Quantitive Information
I have complied with ethical standards for experimentation on human beings and, if necessary, have obtained appropriate permission from an Institutional Review Board or other oversight group.
TAG: Attention TAG: JDM TAG: Language TAG: Learning TAG: Memory TAG: Perception TAG: Performance TAG: Problem Solving TAG: Social Cognition TAG: Social Psychology TAG: Thinking

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